Capital Dispatch: 'The answer is no'

Here's what you need to know about the top political stories of the week.

September 20, 2024

Trudeau loses a riding and a minister, but keeps his grip on House power for now  Welcome back to Parliament and welcome back Dispatch readers! The first week of the fall sitting has certainly kept Hill journalists on their toes. From a pair of big byelections, to the first round of early election brinksmanship being settled before it ever really began. Plus, sources say a big cabinet shuffle is coming.   The week that was Where to start? The fall sitting of Parliament began Monday with plenty of political posturing. One by one party leaders and House representatives came to the House of Commons foyer to frame how they see the months ahead playing out, and what they intend to prioritize.  Government House Leader Karina Gould said Liberals would be focused on Canadians, and on calling out Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre, the day prior, had promised his party would keep pressing for a carbon tax election. Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh set expectations for how their parties – holding the balance of power – plan to approach confidence votes, in a pair of pressers that set the tone for the week.  From the Bloc's perspective, if it's good for Quebec, they'd back it. For the New Democrats, if it was good for Canadians, the same goes.  Then came the byelections.  The Bloc Québécois clinched LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que., a longtime Liberal seat in Montreal, and the NDP managed to narrowly hold on to the NDP stronghold of Elmwood Transcona, Man. Tuesday brought the usual partisan interpretations of what the results meant, from how massive a pickup the separatists scored on the Island of Montreal, to fresh prognosticating on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's best before date.   The latter was played down by loyal cabinet ministers who largely chalked up their no-good day to a "dry run."  The second day back to business also brought the first confirmation that the first Conservative opposition day was seven days away.  Will they, won't they questions ensued.  Wednesday at caucus, Poilievre pulled up the verbatim text of his first motion of non-confidence, calling for the Bloc and NDP to back him and bring down the minority Liberals.  But, it didn't take long for Blanchet to pour cold water all over the prospect of the country being thrust into a snap fall vote.   "The motion contains absolutely nothing. It essentially says, 'would you like to replace Justin Trudeau with Pierre Poilievre,' so the answer is no." And just when it looked like Trudeau could take a breath, the news broke that he was losing a longtime cabinet minister and his Quebec lieutenant to the provincial Liberal leadership race.    Pablo Rodriguez made it official on Thursday, taking the symbolic stroll across a bridge from Ottawa to Gatineau to announce he was quitting cabinet, and would spend the remainder of his time as an MP, sitting as an Independent.  This prompted the prime minister – absent from the actual ceremony – to reassign Rodriguez's roles.  Anita Anand was sworn in at Rideau Hall as Canada's new transport minister, while retaining her treasury board role. Jean-Yves Duclos was also informally assigned as the party's new point person for the province of Quebec.   Both were asked what they think their cabinet colleague's departure means for the fate of the federal Liberal party.  "That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well," said Anand.  Duclos said Canadians "will eventually decide and hopefully vote for our party."  And in a last bit of drama… minutes after Singh finally revealed how he'd be voting on the first non-confidence motion – he'll be backing the Liberals despite telling voters Trudeau is irredeemable – simmering tensions between him Poilievre spilled out onto the floor of the Commons. This prompted House Speaker Greg Fergus to state the following, four days into the fall sitting: "I ask members to please remember that Canadians are looking at us and let us conduct ourselves in a way really befitting of each of our constituencies and a country as a whole."

Not to be missed 'Say it to my face': Singh  It was the video seen across the country. On Tuesday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh confronted a protester for calling him a "corrupted bastard" on Parliament Hill. Getting up in his face goading the guy to say it again, Singh's office later said, essentially, that he'd had enough with the convoy-esque protesters who had been camped out on Wellington Street hollering at parliamentarians, their staff and others who work in West Block on their way inside. The interaction also renewed a conversation about politicians' security and put the Conservatives on the defensive after MPs didn't condemn what had transpired. Asked directly on Thursday about the altercation and the protesters, Poilievre said he'd "leave it to others to judge."  Interference inquiry resumes   The foreign interference public inquiry resumed this week. Picking back up on hearings, Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue said she won't be naming the MPs suspected by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) of being "semi-witting or witting" participants in meddling efforts. Then, as witness testimony resumed, the probe dove into more recent headlines, broadening the probe beyond elections. First, it was the MPs who were targeted by Chinese hackers, and then former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole and MP Michael Chong who came with fresh warnings about the severity of Canada's influence problem.  Seat vacancy watch  And, since every vote counts and any future byelection would be big news, bureau colleague Brennan MacDonald checked in this week on the current House of Commons seat vacancies. One is in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C. where Liberal MP John Aldag resigned to run for the B.C. NDP. That byelection must be announced – barring a general election superseding it, of course – by November, with the vote happening in January at the latest. The second vacancy is in Halifax, N.S. where Liberal MP Andy Fillmore vacated his seat to run for mayor. That byelection would have to be called by March. Of note from Elections Canada: "The Parliament of Canada Act includes an exception where a vacancy occurs in the nine months before a fixed date general election; in that case, no by-election is called and the seat remains vacant until the general election."

Quote of the week "We will need a very good compass… We are playing chicken with four cars, and eventually one will hit another one, and there will be a wreck. So, I'm not certain that this session will last a very long time."  - Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, in the foyer on Monday reflecting on the new minority dynamics.

The week ahead Turns out the Conservatives will have two chances to advance motions to bring down the government next week… if they wanted to.   Here's what's on the House of Commons legislative agenda for next Monday through Thursday.  On Monday, MPs will begin the long-anticipated debate on Bill C-63, the Online Harms Act.   And, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table a ways and means motion regarding Liberal capital gains changes, with promise that the proposal incorporates the feedback received during summer consultations.  On Tuesday, MPs will debate the first ill-fated Conservative opposition day motion: "The House has no confidence in the Prime Minister and the Government."  On Wednesday, the vote on the Conservative motion will happen, as will the vote on Freeland's capital gains motion. Debate will also pick back up on Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act, which proposes changes to Canadian citizenship rules for those born abroad.   Then, Thursday will be another Conservative supply day. It remains to be seen what the Official Opposition intends to advance, but the vote on what they bring forward would happen on the following Tuesday, as the Commons is not sitting next Monday on account for it being the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

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