The price of an $80 pair of blue jeans spiking to $90 or even $96.

A pair of $90 gym shoes rising to $116. A $1,500 mid-tier couch rising to over $1,600.

The rising costs of these three household items may seem like examples of Bidenomics at work over the last four years. But if that's what you're thinking, think again.

These are the kinds of price increases American consumers can expect if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with some of the tariff proposals he floated on the campaign trail this year, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation.

The report found that Trump's tariff proposals could cost consumers $46 billion to $78 billion annually just for the six product categories its authors reviewed — apparel, footwear, furniture, household appliances, toys, and travel goods. That's $362 to $624 every year per household, according to the report.

Other broader studies have found that the tariffs floated by Trump could cost American families thousands of dollars annually, up to $7,600 every year, with the impact being felt most intensely by low- and middle-income families.

"They're the ones that will bear the brunt of these tariff increases and the price increases," said Jonathan Gold, the federation's vice president of supply-chain and customs policy.

Trump has long been a fan of tariffs as a cure for the nation's economic ills. He recently said the word "tariff" was "the most beautiful word in the dictionary."

He's suggested that raising tariffs on imported goods could help to offset the nation's budget deficit, reduce the tax burden for Americans, or even replace the income tax entirely. He has threatened Mexico with debilitating tariffs if it doesn't stop the flow of immigrants coming to the U.S. southern border.

Trump and his allies, including his protectionist trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, have called for using tariffs to protect American businesses and workers. Lighthizer, whom Trump has asked to return, has called for shifting the nation's trade policy "away from price optimization" and toward "policies that will build strong American families and communities and create productive high-paying jobs."

"The best way to fix consumerism," he said at a 2022 conference "is to raise prices."

Americans were frustrated with sky-high inflation and escalating costs for groceries and everyday goods during Joe Biden's presidency. Prices will likely continue to rise, in some cases dramatically, if president Trump imposes some form of the tariffs he talked about as a candidate, the retail federation's report says.

Trump hasn't been specific about what exactly he intends to do with tariffs — he has floated a wide range of proposals with numbers that change, and his "Trump Republican Platform" says only generally that as "Tariffs on Foreign Producers go up, Taxes on American Workers, Families, and Businesses can come down." However, he has talked about implementing a universal tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all imports from all countries and an additional China-specific tariff of 60 to 100 percent.

In that light, the retail-federation report looks at two scenarios: a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports with an additional 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports, and a 20 percent universal tariff with an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The report's authors also assumed that U.S. trading partners won't retaliate, which seems highly unlikely.

The authors found that under the two scenarios, clothing prices would increase 12.5–20.6 percent; shoe prices would increase 18.1–28.8 percent; furniture prices would increase 6.4–9.5 percent; household appliance prices would increase 19.4–31 percent; toy prices would increase 36.3–55.8 percent, and prices for travel goods (backpacks and purses) would increase 13–21.5 percent.

The price of a $50 tricycle could increase to as much as $78, according to the report. The prices of a $119 leather handbag could jump to $145. The price of a $650 basic refrigerator could go up to as much as $852.

According to the report, "the additional costs associated with these proposed tariffs would be too large for U.S. retailers to absorb and, when passed on to consumers, would result in prices higher than many consumers would be willing or able to pay. Some consumers would stop purchasing the items and demand would fall."

A separate report last month from the Consumer Technology Association that took a similar look at how Trump's tariffs could affect electronics found that prices for laptops and tablets could increase by 46 percent, video-game console prices could increase by 40 percent, and smartphone prices could increase by 26 percent.

The CTA report concluded at a Trump's proposal for a 60 percent tariff on all imports from China would largely drive production to other countries and not to the U.S.

"The bottom line is that the proposed Trump tariffs will increase prices significantly for consumer tech products, including laptops, tablets, smartphones, and video game consoles, reducing U.S. consumer purchasing power by $90 billion," Ed Brzytwa, CTA's vice president of international trade, said in a statement online.

Gold, of the retail federation, said it's important for Americans to understand that tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. companies that import goods to sell or to utilize in manufacturing. So, even products built in the U.S. could still be affected if they use foreign parts.

While the Covid-19 pandemic showed there are some key industries — medical products and high-tech goods, for example — that might be good for the U.S. to take more control of, Trump hasn't focused on tariffs strategically targeted at specific parts of the economy.

Instead, his platform generally calls for turning the U.S. into a "Manufacturing Superpower" by "protecting American Workers from unfair Foreign Competition."

Gold said it's unrealistic to think that the U.S. can shut itself off from the world economy.

"You can't bring everything back to the United States to be made here," he said. "We can't go back to the 1950s economy."

During his first term, Trump instituted tariffs on steel and aluminum and on Chinese goods. Biden continued Trump's tariffs, and earlier this year announced new ones on a variety of Chinese imports, including electric-vehicle batteries, semiconductors, solar-panel cells, and some medical equipment and critical minerals.

Gold said those tariffs have been failures. "That isn't going to bring China to the table and make them change their ways, because they continue to trade with everybody else."

Some Trump supporters argue that his earlier tariffs didn't lead to ballooning inflation. But "we were in a very different economy in 2018," Gold said. "And those tariffs were a little bit more targeted, specifically on China, and the rates weren't as high as what's being proposed."

As for the idea that Trump's tariffs could replace the income tax: "We can't tariff enough to make up for income taxes," Gold said.

As president, Trump will likely have broad ability to impose sweeping tariffs. While the Constitution grants the power to "lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises" to Congress, lawmakers starting in the 1930s delegated much of their international economic authority to the executive branch, according to a recent Cato Institute report.

In addition to raising prices for consumers, Trump's tariff proposals are likely to hurt American retailers, Gold said.

"Especially for small- and medium-sized retailers who aren't able to absorb the costs and have to pass them along to consumers, that could mean lost sales," he said. "That could be those businesses closing down if the consumers aren't' going to buy those products at a higher cost."

THIS NEWS ITEM IS PRESENTED BY
Putnam BOOKS

Trump's 'Beautiful' Tariffs Likely to Send Retail Prices Soaring

A new report found that Trump’s proposals could cost consumers $46–$78 billion annually just for the six ... READ MORE

A message from Putnam Books

The newest NUMA Files® novel

A new, terrifying world order is being plotted…Unless the NUMA crew can stop this code of desolation in the latest in Clive Cussler's #1 New York Times bestselling series.

Shop Now